| Sargent & Lundy Savings Investment Plan |
| DIVERSIFICATION WORKS - EVENTUALLY |
|
The following excerpts are from an article in the
April 2008 MONEY magazine. The opinions of the author, William J.
Bernstein, may or may not reflect those of the SIP Committee. It's one of the first things you learn about stock investing: Diversification reduces your risk. U.S. blue chips, foreign stocks, small-caps, and real estate investment trusts (REITs) may each have their risks, but they won't all go down at once....right? In fact, sometimes they do just that. This market collapse has convinced many investors that stock diversification doesn't work. Blue chips and small-caps are down 36% over the past 12 months. International markets have lost about half their value, and so have REITS. The only place to hide has been in Treasuries. But before you give up on the idea of diversification, consider the alternatives. There are only two, and neither one is great. Option 1: "Put all your eggs in one basket - and watch that basket." Not all market crashes will be like this one, though. Sometimes the disasters are local. Put yourself in the position of a Japanese investor 20 years ago. If you didn't diversify beyond your own market, you would have lost 2.5% a year since then, while stocks worldwide grew 4.9% annually. Hedging against such catastrophes - however unlikely - is the best reason to diversify. Within the U.S. stock market, stock diversification also has a better track record than recent experience suggests. Take a look at the 2000-02 downturn. Before that debacle, all anybody wanted were tech stocks and the world's largest growth companies. REITS languished because the Internet was making bricks and mortar obsolete. Small banking, manufacturing, and retail concerns? Toast, in the new economy. But those were the stocks that made money when the S&P 500 took its dive. Option 2: "If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen." Amazingly, that might not have done you much good. Over the next decade, a portfolio evenly split among the basic stock categories - growth and value U.S. blue chips, U.S. small-caps, a parallel lineup of investments in developed foreign markets, REITS, and emerging markets - would still beat Treasury bills. And this example uses the best imaginable scenario for market timing. Investment wisdom begins with the realization that it's the decades, not the days, that matter. And over the long term, diversification really does protect your portfolio. |
This page updated on 3/31/2009